Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ENS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 18.587828 21.492068 24.949260 29.441224 35.236773 42.631100 5.307548e+01
2025-01-26 16.819070 20.887688 26.310982 34.383404 46.721641 66.147953 1.023994e+02
2025-02-02 15.056686 19.556165 26.010450 36.570674 54.928111 89.495489 1.748104e+02
2025-02-09 12.925585 17.208641 23.612013 34.690250 55.565828 99.990118 2.367896e+02
2025-02-16 12.001058 16.416406 23.328773 36.083101 62.590683 128.858614 4.163614e+02
2025-02-23 11.018003 15.367536 22.409421 36.049056 66.685386 154.701328 7.035869e+02
2025-03-02 10.192747 14.448320 21.535733 35.852304 70.342651 183.826164 1.289790e+03
2025-03-09 9.603353 13.832614 21.078533 36.360139 76.040849 228.909434 3.292786e+03
2025-03-16 8.831136 12.829420 19.784774 34.804672 75.499889 248.107810 6.843242e+03
2025-03-23 8.348231 12.267943 19.228761 34.758003 79.447189 298.807128 5.338294e+04
2025-03-30 7.722824 11.407096 18.010592 32.962313 77.215295 310.758071 1.048238e+06
2025-04-06 7.105261 10.517687 16.658015 30.649250 72.565435 301.032702 NaN
2025-04-13 6.564515 9.754013 15.532719 28.847013 69.603118 305.180497 NaN
2025-04-20 6.740447 10.270394 16.968105 33.629198 93.253981 660.059211 NaN
2025-04-27 6.626265 10.247654 17.312051 35.744537 108.997708 1184.879251 NaN
2025-05-04 6.204035 9.619135 16.313050 33.925660 105.265802 1253.851537 NaN
2025-05-11 6.062831 9.508212 16.408721 35.273045 118.859223 2360.964594 NaN
2025-05-18 5.832811 9.210119 16.062652 35.240120 125.229322 3805.867742 NaN
2025-05-25 5.611273 8.913089 15.688950 35.049838 130.790225 6544.466154 NaN
2025-06-01 5.450564 8.723427 15.538051 35.540941 141.666873 18802.808037 NaN
2025-06-08 5.179771 8.301149 14.817176 34.036377 137.333951 23350.221094 NaN
2025-06-15 5.015174 8.080444 14.545860 33.991219 144.213198 115877.943148 NaN
2025-06-22 4.763351 7.673423 13.809492 32.252953 136.617870 102011.823379 NaN